卡達外交危機的前因後果

【譯按1】6月初，卡達爆發外交危機，沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國、巴林與埃及等海灣國家接連宣布與卡達斷交，各國除了驅逐卡達大使，也對卡達發布貿易與旅遊禁令。沙烏地阿拉伯陣營批評卡達和國營半島電視台與伊朗之間的合作關係，並指控卡達資助恐怖組織，然而卡達否認這些指控，並自陳向來與美方合作反恐以及打擊伊斯蘭國。

沙烏地阿拉伯等國以「反恐之名」與卡達斷交，並透過各自的媒體發言，雙方各說各話，本篇文章作者整理了雙方陣營之間長期以來的矛盾與緊張關係，也指出了美國新上任的川普政府在這當中扮演的關鍵角色，有助於讀者進一步了解卡達的外交危機背後，中東區域各陣營之間的張力與角力。

Understanding the Qatar diplomatic crisis

The Qatar diplomatic crisis is certainly not the product of the current phase, but of many years. The relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been unsettled for years, and their relations reached to a border fighting that killed two Qatari soldiers and a Saudi officer in 1992. In 1994, Qatar stood against Saudi Arabia in the war in Yemen, where Qatar supported the demands of secession of the south Yemen. In 1995, Qatar also opposed the appointment of Saudi Arabia as secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), forcing Qatar to leave the conference room, threatening to boycott the council's sessions altogether. Qatar's relations with neighboring Bahrain also have always been beset by the conflict over Hawar Islands, which have plunged the two countries into a conflict that could have triggered a war in 1986 but Saudi intervention prevented that war. Qatar and Bahrain did not enjoy full diplomatic relations until 1997.

Saudi Arabia and Egypt sought within intelligence cooperation in 1994 and 1996 to support a double coup not against the new Emir "Hamad" (the father of current Emir) but also against the ruling family "Al Thani" by supporting a tribal alliance loyal to Saudi Arabia.But in the final hours before the coup d'état, it was revealed by an officer. Qatar immediately summoned The US, which had a simple air base to monitor the no-fly zone in Iraq, and held a security pact with Washington under which Washington owns a large military base in the region that Qatar finances its logistics in exchange for "Freedom of the political role for Qatar".

Qatar has sought to strengthen its links with the opponents of the Egyptian authority, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, as a form of resistance. This became a kind of strategic cooperation. The Muslim Brotherhood since they fled Egypt under Nasser's role has a good position in the Gulf states. They developed the educational curricula in Saudi Arabia and established the educational structures in the Gulf and the health structures. It was natural to cooperate with them, but Qatar went beyond cooperation in these specialized fields to a kind of Political cooperation where Qatar hosted important people like Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi and many.

The UAE was not interested in being a political player as much as it was to be the central axis of the Middle East economy and the place of the wealthy gathering in the Middle East without a major political role. Over the past six years, the region and its geopolitical map have changed and the UAE has become very much interested in being a key player, politically and a hub for the Middle East.

With moving of the Palestinian politician and parliament member Mohammed Dahlan to Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates after bitter disagreements with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas over the Palestinian national program and accusations of corruption. Dahlan, has a political project "Middle East free of the Muslim Brotherhood" he persuaded the powerful man of the UAE Mohammed bin Zayed to adopt this project, which happened. Dahlan's presence in the UAE is the seed of an Arab political project that includes the UAE, Egypt and later Saudi Arabia.

Over the past two decades, Qatar has built a huge media and institutional empire that links it with the Americans as a key player and engine in the Middle East and internationally. Such as Doha Center for Interfaith Dialogue, the Muslim-American Dialogue Conference, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and dozens of other initiatives, as well as large media tools, especially the Al Jazeera Media Network. This is in addition to the huge Qatari investment in educational institutions and attracting international universities specializing in politics with branches in Qatar as well as the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, which has the first impact on Arab academics and researchers and the largest producer of research in the Arab world.

Qatar presented itself to the region and its people through a picture, which was during the years of "95-2015", and this picture emerged through which allied with "political Islam" and the close with the Islamists of Turkey and Sudan and allied with the popular revolutions that began in Tunisia and ended in Tunisia. It is also the picture that Al-Jazeera has built on the Qatari political support network of all the Arab opposition movements, through which the people have known through its screen.

Linking Qatari politics to Arab spring projects and the rise of Islamists in the region have led to a "temporary" twinning that make them to share gains and losses. This is precisely what happened. Qatar's shares rose in the Arab spring and the waves of hopes that reached the region in 2011, but these hopes soon evaporated with the decline of spring in Egypt, Yemen and Tunisia and its turmoil in Libya, Qatar also shared the decline and losses of the moment with its allies.

In the past two months, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, using their media tools, have launched a major attack on Qatar in an attempt, according to the Bahraini Foreign Ministry statement, to stop "media incitement" and support of Iranian groups in the region. Bahrain is a predominantly Shi'ite country governed by the Sunni royal family, which has accused Iran since 2011 of interfering in its internal affairs and inciting the Bahraini people against its rulers. This was not the first attempt by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain to move against Qatar. In 2014, the three countries withdrew their ambassadors from Doha, demanding that Qatar stop supporting Islamic groups especially Muslim Brotherhood.

But it did not stop there. In a surprise move, US President Donald Trump said: "They "the Gulf states" said they would take a hard line on funding extremism and all reference was pointing to Qatar," he added on Twitter. "Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!" Given that Qatar hosts the largest American base in the Middle East, which has about ten thousand soldiers from the US forces and the Office of the commander of US forces. That did not prevent Robert Gates, the former US secretary of defense and former CIA director, from declaring at a gathering to discuss the relationship between the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar that Qatar risks losing the presence of US troops on its land if it continues to support the Muslim Brotherhood.

In the same rally, Ed Royce, chairman of the Republican Foreign Affairs Committee, said that Congress was ready to consider moving an important US military base in Qatar else­where in the Middle East if Doha did not change its ways.  This harmony and consensus among all parties in this time frame shows a great deal of concerted efforts among many Arab and international parties to besiege Qatar and those supported by Qatar such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.

What has strongly changed now after Trump's visit is the UAE's ability to convince the new US administration that Qatar supports terrorism and some of the world's most radical forces, including Hamas, the Nusra Front and others. For weeks, there have been media attacks on Qatar and two weeks ago the US administration sent Qatar a message that they must expel Hamas from Doha and stop supporting Muslim Brotherhood activity. Qatar informed Hamas that the region is changing and no one can protect you. There, Hamas tried to issue a new charter to be more pragmatic on the advice of Turkey and Qatar.